Research Summary
The report from MacroVisor provides an overview of various economic and market indicators. It highlights the growing divergence between two long duration assets, TLT (20-30 year US Treasury bond ETF) and QQQ (NASDAQ 100 market cap-weighted ETF). The report also points out the surge in equity call volumes, indicating optimism in the options market. The German economy registered 0% growth in Q2, after two quarters of contracting GDP. Inflation in the UK is the highest among the G7 countries, making GBP an attractive currency to pair against others with less aggressive monetary tightening regimes. The report also discusses the state of the commercial office space cycle, with the US being hit by historically high vacancy rates due to the rise of hybrid and remote work.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor the divergence between TLT and QQQ: This could indicate potential market shifts.
- Watch the options market: The surge in equity call volumes suggests increased optimism, which could impact market dynamics.
- Keep an eye on the German economy: The weak post-COVID recovery could have implications for the broader European and global economies.
- Consider currency strategies involving GBP: The high inflation in the UK and the resulting monetary policy could make GBP an attractive currency to pair against others.
- Track the commercial office space market: The high vacancy rates in the US due to the rise of hybrid and remote work could present investment opportunities in the real estate sector.
