Research Summary
The report discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price range, the Binance case, and the performance of various altcoins. It also covers the impact of recent events at OpenAI on AI coins, the launch of Blast, issues faced by perp DEXes, and the performance of Solana ecosystem coins. The report also touches on the performance of gaming coins, the SEC’s potential action against Kraken, and the launch of Pyth Network’s token.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Market Performance
- Bitcoin’s Price Range: The report notes that Bitcoin is currently trading between $35k and $38k, with the expectation that this range will continue for a while. The author predicts that Bitcoin’s price will be higher by the time the ETF is launched in January and does not foresee it dropping below $32k in the coming weeks.
- Ethereum’s Performance: Ethereum’s underperformance this week is not seen as a negative for the market as the author believes that flows need to be concentrated on Bitcoin to help the entire market pump. However, the underperformance of Ethereum beta coins is noted, with the exception of $LDO, which performed on par with Bitcoin.
Binance Case and Its Impact
- Binance’s Settlement with DOJ: Binance’s agreement to plead guilty to DOJ charges and pay a $4.3 billion fine is seen as a positive development for the market as it removes much of the uncertainty surrounding the case. As part of the settlement, Binance will exit the US market, its systems and records will be monitored for five years, and CEO CZ will step down but retain majority ownership.
Performance of Altcoins
- Alt L1s Performance: The report highlights the performance of various alt L1s, including $SOL, $AVAX, $NEAR, $MATIC, and $KAS. While $SOL topped this week at $68, $AVAX reached a new 2023 top at $24, and $NEAR was up +15% in 7 days. However, $MATIC underperformed, dropping -20% in a week.
- AI Coins and OpenAI Drama: The recent events at OpenAI, including the firing and subsequent reinstatement of CEO Sam Altman, acted as a catalyst for AI coins, which were the best-performing altcoin bucket this week. The report lists several AI coins that performed well, including $TAO, $AKT, $CTXC, $RNDR, $IMGNAI, $FET, $AGIX, and $OCEAN.
Launch of Blast and Its Impact
- Blast Launch: The launch of Blast, a new “L2 with native yield,” by Blur founder Pacman is noted. The idea behind Blast is that all the ETH and stablecoins natively earn yield. The report notes that $125M have already been bridged in one day following the launch.
Issues Faced by Perp DEXes
- Challenges for DYDX and Woo: The report notes that two perp DEXes, DYDX and Woo, faced difficulties this week. DYDX was “attacked” on its YFI market, resulting in bad debt for the protocol, while Woo faced liquidity problems and wicks on some trading pairs due to a hack on its main market maker, Kronos Research.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Performance: Given the current price range of Bitcoin and Ethereum’s recent underperformance, it would be beneficial to keep a close eye on these two cryptocurrencies’ market performance.
- Assess Impact of Binance Case: The resolution of the Binance case could have significant implications for the broader cryptocurrency market. It would be worthwhile to assess the potential impact of this development on other cryptocurrency exchanges and tokens.
- Track Alt L1s and AI Coins: Given the notable performance of various alt L1s and AI coins, these cryptocurrencies could present potential areas of interest for further research and monitoring.
- Understand Implications of Blast Launch: The launch of Blast could have significant implications for the DeFi space. Understanding its impact and potential could provide valuable insights.
- Consider Challenges Faced by Perp DEXes: The issues faced by DYDX and Woo highlight potential risks associated with perp DEXes. It would be beneficial to consider these challenges when evaluating potential involvement in these platforms.
