Research Summary
The report discusses the recent uptick in onchain activity and the author’s personal idea generation process. It highlights the importance of focusing on tokens that smart money has conviction in and the challenges of trading new launches. The report also provides examples of successful trades and offers insights into identifying potential tokens for investment.
Key Takeaways
Onchain Activity Resurgence
- Uptick in Onchain Activity: The report notes a small spike in smart money activity within onchain alts following a BTC increase to almost $35k and ETH to $1,800. Broader smart money has seen stablecoin holding percentages not seen since January 2022.
Trading New Launches
- Challenges of New Launches: The report highlights the competitive nature of trading new launches, with most tokens launched today not being of high quality. It suggests that trading new launches now is about catching sniper capitulation in tokens that aren’t garbage.
Successful Trades
- Examples of Successful Trades: The report provides examples of successful trades, such as JOE and CRAFT, which saw significant increases in market cap after initial drops. The key is seeing smart money bid these bottoms to signal continued interest.
Idea Generation Process
- Author’s Idea Generation Process: The author shares his personal idea generation process, which involves tuning into weekly programming covering new launches, using Dexscreener filters to identify where market attention is flowing, and using smart money as an idea generation signal.
Market Outlook
- Current Market Conditions: The report concludes that while the market isn’t great and is becoming more competitive, it has still been profitable for those who have stuck around and improved their skills. The author anticipates a resurgence in onchain activity and the possibility of another phase of onchain fun if one of the current smaller crypto favorites can run it up to $100mm+.
Actionable Insights
- Focus on Smart Money Conviction: Investors should pay attention to tokens that smart money has conviction in, as these have been a decent place to focus recently.
- Consider New Launches Carefully: Trading new launches requires careful consideration due to the competitive nature of the market and the quality of most newly launched tokens. Catching sniper capitulation in tokens that aren’t garbage could be a viable strategy.
- Use Available Tools for Idea Generation: Tools such as Dexscreener filters and custom TG alerts with chainEDGE can be used to stay on top of new or interesting tokens worth paying attention to.
- Stay Adaptable to Market Conditions: Despite current market conditions, profitability is still possible for those who adapt and improve their skills. Investors should stay adaptable and be prepared for potential market changes.
