Research Summary
- The report discusses the current economic landscape, particularly focusing on the monetary policy in the United States and its implications on traditional markets and blockchain.
- It highlights the Federal Reserve’s policy errors, including the excessive time with fed funds below core inflation, and predicts that rates have to go higher for longer than the markets anticipate.
- The report emphasizes the failure of imagination in monetary policy and criticizes the Fed’s decision to keep buying bonds even after inflation hit 7.0%.
- It analyzes the real rates of return, the overvaluation of bonds, and the negative impact of the Fed’s manipulation of bonds in the past 15 years.
- The report observes the decoupling of blockchain from traditional markets and emphasizes Bitcoin’s low correlation with the S&P 500.
- It celebrates the 10th anniversary of Pantera’s Bitcoin Fund and highlights the potential impact of a BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.
- The report also includes insights from industry leaders, upcoming conference calls, and open positions in Pantera’s portfolio companies.
Actionable Insights
- Monetary Policy Analysis: Investors should be aware of the implications of the Fed’s policy errors and the need for higher rates for a longer period.
- Bond Market Warning: The report warns of the overvaluation of bonds and the risks involved, urging caution in investing in interest-rate sensitive asset classes.
- Blockchain Independence: Emphasizing the decoupling of blockchain from traditional markets, the report suggests that blockchain can trade independently of rising rates.
- Investment Opportunities: Highlighting the success of Pantera’s Bitcoin Fund and the potential BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, the report provides insights into potential investment avenues in the crypto space.
