Research Summary
The report discusses the potential impact of the upcoming ETF verdict on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. It highlights the strong institutional demand for Bitcoin, the historical trend of Bitcoin peaking alongside major events, and the author’s investment strategy for December.
Key Takeaways
Anticipation for the ETF Verdict
- ETF Verdict’s Impact: The report suggests that the upcoming ETF verdict in early January is driving excitement and positive momentum in the Bitcoin market. The verdict is expected to occur between January 8 and January 10.
- Historical Trend of Bitcoin Peaking: The report notes that Bitcoin has a history of peaking alongside major events. Examples include Bitcoin’s peak at the date of CME’s BTC futures launch in 2017, Coinbase’s public debut in April 2021, El Salvador’s legal tender Tuesday in September 2021, and VanEck’s spot ETF deadline in November 2021.
Institutional Demand for Bitcoin
- Strong Institutional Demand: The report highlights the strong institutional demand for Bitcoin, with BTC ETPs globally seeing nearly 40k worth of BTC inflows in November. CME open interest has also reached all-time highs, with futures premiums pushing to 20%.
- Stagnant Retail Participation: While institutional demand remains high, retail participation in the Bitcoin market is stagnating, according to the report.
Investment Strategy for December
- Long Position: The author plans to maintain the long position entered in September and exit all leveraged exposure as the ETF deadline approaches.
- De-risking the Portfolio: The author also plans to de-risk the portfolio slightly to assess the actual U.S. ETF flows once the verdict is announced.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor the ETF Verdict: The upcoming ETF verdict could have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Investors should closely monitor developments related to the verdict.
- Consider Institutional Demand: The strong institutional demand for Bitcoin could be a key factor driving its price. Investors should consider this demand when making investment decisions.
- Assess Retail Participation: The stagnation in retail participation could have implications for the Bitcoin market. Investors should assess the level of retail participation and its potential impact on the market.
- Review Investment Strategies: The author’s investment strategy for December could provide insights for other investors. Investors should review their own strategies in light of these insights.
