Research Summary
The report discusses the potential impact of the upcoming EURO 2024 on sports-related tokens and GambleFi, with a focus on Rollbit (RLB) and Chiliz (CHZ). It highlights the revenue growth of Rollbit, the potential for increased attention to CHZ, and the implications of the Dragon8 chain upgrade and Azuro partnership.
Key Takeaways
Rollbit’s Revenue Growth and Buyback Strategy
- Revenue Increase: Rollbit’s revenue has grown from approximately $40 million per month in August 2023 to $50 million per month in April 2024. A significant portion of this growth is attributed to its Sportsbook, which now contributes 30-40% of the revenue.
- Buyback Strategy: Rollbit’s buyback and burn strategy has led to the purchase of 33% of the outstanding RLB supply each year, implying $5.5 million of buybacks each month. Despite this, the RLB price has underperformed ETH by 55% since the start of the year.
EURO 2024’s Potential Impact on Rollbit
- Increased Revenue: The EURO 2024, expected to attract similar viewership levels as the EURO 2020 (over 5.2 billion), could drive Rollbit’s revenue higher, leading to larger buybacks during the summer of 2024.
- Revenue Volatility: Rollbit’s revenue is volatile, with high-performing days bringing in 2-3 times the revenue of weaker days. This volatility is largely driven by sports betting, which is expected to see increased activity during EURO 2024.
Chiliz’s Potential Upside
- Historical Performance: CHZ outperformed other tokens during the World Cup in November 2022, yielding close to +80% when bought approximately 20 days before the event. A similar trend is expected around EURO 2024.
- Additional Catalysts: CHZ has other potential catalysts, including the Dragon8 chain upgrade, which introduces an EIP1559 fee burn feature and new tokenomics, and a partnership with Azuro to co-sponsor a grant program for developers to build onchain sports prediction markets.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor Rollbit’s Performance: Given the expected increase in viewership during EURO 2024, it would be beneficial to keep an eye on Rollbit’s revenue growth and buyback strategy.
- Assess Chiliz’s Potential: With the upcoming EURO 2024 and other catalysts such as the Dragon8 chain upgrade and Azuro partnership, it would be prudent to evaluate the potential of CHZ.
- Consider the Impact of Sports Events: The impact of major sports events like EURO 2024 on sports-related tokens and GambleFi should be taken into account when assessing the crypto market.
