Research Summary
The report discusses the author’s perspective on the current cryptocurrency market, highlighting the potential impact of the anticipated January ETF. The author also mentions his 2024 Memo, which provides a comprehensive view of his predictions for 2024. The report also touches on the author’s current portfolio and his approach to trading.
Key Takeaways
Market Predictions
- Long-term Market View: The author maintains a long-term bullish stance on the cryptocurrency market, despite potential macro events such as rate cuts. He believes that the market will continue to grow in the long run.
- January ETF Impact: Initially, the author believed that the January ETF would be a sell-the-news event. However, he has since shifted his stance, now viewing it as a buy-the-news event. This change in perspective is due to a shift in market sentiment, with more people now believing the opposite.
- Market Dilemma: The author notes that the market is currently caught in a web of conflicting expectations, particularly regarding the January ETF. In such situations, he suggests returning to the fundamentals, which in this case, indicate that an ETF is bullish.
- Short-term Market View: On the lower timeframes, the author notes that the market experienced a significant drop to 40k. He believes that these hard flushes are another indicator that the ETF will be a buy-the-news event.
- Trading Strategy: The author advocates for a spot-long portfolio, with perps to continue playing the narratives. He suggests that traders should be prepared to handle the 40% draw-downs that may occur as the market continues to grow.
Actionable Insights
- Consider the Long-term View: Despite short-term market fluctuations, the author suggests maintaining a long-term bullish view on the cryptocurrency market.
- Monitor Market Sentiment: The author highlights the importance of keeping an eye on market sentiment, particularly regarding major events like the January ETF. Changes in sentiment can significantly impact market behavior.
- Return to Fundamentals: In situations of market uncertainty, the author recommends returning to the fundamentals to guide trading decisions.
- Prepare for Market Volatility: The author advises traders to be prepared for significant market volatility, including potential draw-downs of up to 40%.
