Research Summary
The report discusses the potential impact of the growing developer population, which is expected to reach 1 billion. It argues that this growth could rival the economic impact of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The report highlights the increasing ease of becoming a developer, the expanding economic returns of software engineering, and the role of AI in accelerating this growth. It also discusses the potential for this growth to drive automation in both the digital and physical economy.
Key Takeaways
Developer Population Growth
- Explosive Growth: The report highlights the rapid growth of the developer population, which crossed 100 million in 2023, up from 24 million in 2017. This growth is expected to continue, potentially reaching 1 billion developers.
- Increasing Accessibility: The report notes that it has become much easier to become a developer, thanks to advancements in technology and software engineering. This has resulted in a reduction in complexity and an increase in potency, making software engineering more accessible to a wider population.
Economic Impact of Developer Growth
- Expanding Economic Returns: The report points out that the economic returns of software engineering are expanding, attracting more young people to the field. The productivity of software engineers and the applicability of their skills are growing faster than the supply.
- Automation of Non-Tech Industries: The report suggests that the growth of the developer population could lead to the automation of many non-tech industries, creating an economic surplus.
Role of AI in Developer Growth
- AI as an Accelerator: The report identifies AI as an unanticipated accelerator of developer growth. For instance, Github Copilot is writing 46% of users’ code, and tools like Zapier and Open Interpreter are simplifying the development process.
- AI and the Physical Economy: The report suggests that the growth in the developer population, assisted by AI, could drive automation not just in the digital economy, but in the physical economy as well.
Actionable Insights
- Investigate the Potential of Developer Growth: The report suggests that the growth of the developer population could have a significant economic impact, potentially rivaling that of AGI. This presents an opportunity to explore how this growth could be leveraged for economic benefit.
- Explore the Role of AI in Developer Growth: The report highlights the role of AI in accelerating developer growth. This suggests that there may be opportunities to further leverage AI to facilitate this growth and increase its impact.
- Consider the Impact on Non-Tech Industries: The report suggests that the growth of the developer population could lead to the automation of many non-tech industries. This presents an opportunity to explore how these industries could be transformed by this growth.
