Research Summary
The research report titled “Vitiligo” by Arthur Hayes, focuses on the global macroeconomic and political implications of the collapse of FTX/Alameda and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). The report discusses the shift in world’s perception of Pax America and the potential for the Global South to emerge triumphant from its currently low base. It also explores the potential for investors to earn above-average returns by allocating funds in instruments and businesses that do well when producers adjust the terms of trade in their favor. The report further delves into the theoretical interplay of potential outcomes in the context of inflation in the West and the refusal of the Global East and South to sell its resources for less than their worth.
Actionable Insights
- Investment Opportunities: Investors can potentially earn above-average returns by allocating funds in instruments and businesses that do well when producers adjust the terms of trade in their favor.
- Emerging Markets: A decline in America’s share of global GDP could mean a doubling or more of some emerging country’s share of the pie. Investors should position themselves to experience a swift rise off of a low base.
- Commodities Investment: Investing in commodities requires understanding of contango and backwardation, and understanding how upstream or downstream a company sits along the path from the production to the sale of a given commodity.
- Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies: There is a potential theoretical interplay between the rise of the commodity cycle and the rise or fall in the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
