This podcast delves into the current state of the Bitcoin market, focusing on the concept of supply and profit. The speaker, a seasoned financial analyst, explores the accumulation trend score, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit, and the significance of the magnitude of profit. The discussion also covers the behavior of long-term holders and their impact on the market. The podcast provides a comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin market, using various metrics and charts to illustrate key points.
Bitcoin’s Strong Performance in 2023
- Bitcoin’s Recovery: The podcast begins with the speaker noting that Bitcoin is trading around its yearly highs of $37,000, indicating a strong performance in 2023 compared to the bearish market of 2022.
- Investor Confidence: Since October, there has been significant accumulation and investor confidence in Bitcoin, with positive news about ETFs and macro overhangs being resolved.
Concept of Supply and Profit
- Profit Magnitude: The speaker emphasizes that the magnitude of the profit is a more significant factor for investors than simply being in profit, as it determines the incentive to take profits.
- Supply and Profit Visualization: Visualizing supply and profit as a percentage of the circulating supply helps understand the overall trend, with the cumulative mean and standard deviation bands providing reference points.
Market Trends and Investor Behavior
- Market Uptrend: The speaker mentions that the current market is in a tentative uptrend, similar to previous periods after the bear market, where the market is still unsure and cautious.
- Unrealized Profit: The speaker highlights the importance of considering the amount of unrealized profit held within the system, as it motivates people to spend.
Role of Long-Term Holders
- Long-Term Holder Activity: The speaker explains that long-term holders tend to be active near cycle inflection points, such as cycle bottoms and previous market all-time highs.
- Long-Term Holder Supply: The speaker notes that the long-term holder supply continues to push to all-time highs, indicating little spending.
Impact of Supply Tightness
- Minimal Spending: Currently, there has been minimal spending by long-term holders, suggesting a lack of willingness to sell.
- Supply Tightness: The tightness of supply contributes to the performative year for Bitcoin in 2023, as investors are unwilling to part with their coins at current profit levels.
- Bullish: The podcast expresses a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin, as evidenced by the strong performance in 2023, significant accumulation, and investor confidence. The speaker’s analysis of the supply and profit, as well as the behavior of long-term holders, further supports this sentiment.
- Neutral: Despite the bullish sentiment, the speaker also maintains a neutral stance, acknowledging the tentative nature of the current market uptrend and the cautious behavior of investors. The speaker also notes that the market is in a cycle midpoint, not indicating overheating or overselling.