Podcast Summary
This podcast episode delves into the world of Bitcoin, discussing the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, the lack of institutional interest in Ethereum, and the anticipated demand for a Bitcoin ETF. The hosts also explore the impact of inflation, the role of Bitcoin in wealth preservation, and the potential for governments to use Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The episode features a guest who shares insights into the operations of BlackRock and the potential for Bitcoin to solve the issue of government debt.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin ETFs and the SEC
- Anticipation for Approval: The hosts discuss the high anticipation for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, noting that many applications have been rejected in the past. They speculate that the SEC may be trying to line up the approval of multiple ETFs simultaneously.
- Timing Window: A specific window of November 10th to November 17th is mentioned for the potential approval of ETFs, linked to the completion of the public comment period and the due date for certain applications.
- Potential Demand: The hosts discuss the potential demand for a Bitcoin ETF, with expectations of initial inflows of 1 to 5 billion dollars and potential growth to 20 to 40 billion dollars over time.
- VanEck’s Application: One host suggests that if they had to pick a winner among the ETF applications, they would choose VanEck as they filed the first application in December 2020.
Inflation and Bitcoin
- Impact of Inflation: The hosts discuss the impact of inflation on different socioeconomic groups, with equities owners benefiting and others struggling to afford basic necessities. They express concern for those who cannot afford to invest in Bitcoin due to financial constraints.
- Role of Bitcoin: The hosts discuss the potential role of a neutral currency like Bitcoin in protecting wealth during times of economic uncertainty. They share personal stories and concerns about protecting their assets and wealth preservation as they approach retirement age.
- Government Spending Cuts: The hosts discuss the need for government spending cuts to address structural issues but note the lack of political will to do so. They mention the possibility of hyperinflation in the US, acknowledging the potential benefits of a sharp shock to wipe away debt.
BlackRock and Bitcoin
- BlackRock’s Expertise: The speaker discusses the credibility and expertise of BlackRock, highlighting that many individuals and institutions rely on their advice. They speculate on whether Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, truly understands the potential of Bitcoin as a solution to the Ponzi scheme of US debt.
- Bitcoin ETF Operations: The speaker explains that BlackRock would buy Bitcoin from various sources, such as exchanges or OTC desks, when they receive orders for the ETF. They mention that the final details of how the ETF will operate, including the ability to redeem for physical Bitcoin, are still being worked out with regulators.
- Government Buying Bitcoin: The speaker discusses the possibility of governments buying Bitcoin to back their currency reserves, similar to how they used to buy gold. They predict that by 2025, the government’s potential ownership of Bitcoin could make Larry Fink look like a genius.
Sentiment Analysis
- Bullish: The hosts express a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin, discussing its potential role in wealth preservation and as a solution to government debt. They anticipate high demand for a Bitcoin ETF and speculate on governments buying Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
- Bearish: A bearish sentiment is expressed towards Ethereum, with the hosts suggesting that it is “old tech” compared to other protocols and that institutional investors understand this. They also note the lack of institutional interest in an Ethereum Futures ETF.
- Neutral: The hosts maintain a neutral stance towards the approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, acknowledging the high anticipation but also noting the many rejected applications in the past. They also express neutrality towards the potential impact of inflation, discussing both the benefits for equities owners and the struggles for those who cannot afford basic necessities.
