Research Summary

The report discusses the recent outflows in US spot bitcoin ETFs due to economic uncertainty and proposes a Put Butterfly Spread strategy for traders anticipating a downward movement in Bitcoin prices. It also highlights the current status of interest rates and the SEC’s pending feedback on S-1 registration statements for ETF issuers.

Key Takeaways

Market View on Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin ETF Outflows: US spot bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows on June 10th and 11th, ending a 19-day inflow streak. This was due to economic uncertainty stemming from conflicting U.S. job data.
  • Interest Rates: The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.50%. The committee is waiting for more encouraging inflation data before it starts to cut rates.

Put Butterfly Spread Strategy

  • Strategy Proposal: The report proposes a Put Butterfly Spread strategy for traders anticipating a downward movement in Bitcoin prices. This strategy involves buying one Put at a higher strike price, selling two Puts with a lower strike price, and buying one Put with an even lower strike price.
  • Trade Structure: The suggested trade structure involves buying a $65,000 Put, selling two $64,000 Puts, and buying a $63,000 Put. The maximum profit from this strategy is $924/BTC, with a debit of $76/BTC.

Bitcoin Price Movement

  • Resistance Level: Bitcoin’s price is facing resistance in moving higher, signaling a downward momentum. The price has returned to the demand zone at $66,500, indicating that buy orders were insufficient to break the resistance at $72,000.
  • Support Level: The next support level for Bitcoin is at $64,000, which is also a flip zone and holds significant importance. If the Bitcoin price is at $64,000 when the options expire on June 21st, traders will achieve maximum profit from the proposed strategy.

Actionable Insights

  • Monitor Bitcoin Price Movement: Traders should keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s price movement, particularly its resistance and support levels, to make informed trading decisions.
  • Consider Put Butterfly Spread Strategy: If traders anticipate a downward movement in Bitcoin prices, they might consider executing a Put Butterfly Spread strategy as proposed in the report.
  • Stay Updated on Interest Rates: The Federal Open Market Committee’s decisions on interest rates can significantly impact Bitcoin prices. Traders should stay updated on these decisions to anticipate potential market movements.

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