Research Summary
The article provides a detailed analysis of the current Bitcoin market, suggesting that we may be in the early stages of a recovery rather than a fleeting bear market rally. The analysis is based on on-chain data, including shifting profiles of Bitcoin holders, their cost basis alignment, and the overall increase in net unrealised profit and loss. The article also discusses two significant elements that could influence Bitcoin market dynamics: the upcoming Mt. Gox Bitcoin distributions and the movement of US Government-held Bitcoin.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor Market Recovery Indicators: The article suggests that the current market is laying the groundwork for a more sustained upward trend. Key indicators include the shifting profiles of Bitcoin holders, the alignment of their cost basis, and the overall increase in net unrealised profit and loss.
- Understand the Mt. Gox Situation: The infamous Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange, which suffered a devastating hack in 2014, is slated to distribute 141,686 BTC to claim holders later this year. The specifics of these distributions remain uncertain, but they could significantly impact the Bitcoin market.
- Track US Government Bitcoin: The US Government holds a significant amount of Bitcoin (205K) as a result of seizures from various criminal activities. Any movement of these holdings, such as a potential upcoming auction, could trigger short-term market volatility.
