Research Summary
The report discusses the measured move targets hit in the SPX, recent BofA GFS highlights, loose fiscal/tight monetary, updates on the bullish crude picture, currencies, and precious metals. The report suggests that the trend in risk assets still supports the upward movement, but the move is extended and getting a bit tired. It advises to stay long but tighten up stops, take partial profits, and lighten up on risk.
Actionable Insights
- Measured move targets hit in the SPX: The report suggests that while the trend in risk assets still supports the upward movement, the move is extended and getting a bit tired. It advises to stay long but tighten up stops, take partial profits, and lighten up on risk.
- Loose fiscal and tight monetary: The report states that fiscal has and continues to be loose, but the monetary side only became restrictive very recently.
- Bullish crude picture: A potential inflationary tailwind is crude, which is in a nice technical setup with a backdrop of historically bearish speculative positioning.
- Positioning in JPY and GBP: The report points out the one-sided positioning in JPY (short) and GBP (long). It suggests shorting GBPUSD, especially if it retraces some of its recent selloff.
- Precious metals: The report is very bullish on precious metals over the next few years but suggests tactically playing them on the short side at the moment due to positioning.
