Research Summary
The report examines several key catalysts in the cryptocurrency market, including the acceleration of Aptos token unlocks, Near’s performance in relation to Nearcon, and further FTX estate sales. It also provides potential trade ideas based on these catalysts, such as shorting APT in the medium term and going long on NEAR into Nearcon 2023.
Key Takeaways
Aptos Token Unlocks
- Acceleration of Unlocks: Aptos token unlocks are set to increase significantly from November 12, 2023, onwards. The rate of unlocking will rise from 4.5 million APT monthly ($32 million) to 24.8 million APT ($177 million) monthly. This accelerated schedule will last for six months before tapering down to 11.3 million APT monthly.
- Potential Trade Idea: The report suggests a medium-term short on APT from November 12, 2023, to April 12, 2023. This is based on the possibility of FTX Ventures, a major investor in Aptos, selling its holdings upon unlocking.
Near’s Performance and Nearcon
- Historical Price Action: Near’s historical price action suggests a run-up into its annual conference, Nearcon, followed by a fall. The token has already risen over 30% from its lows and is expected to continue outperforming into the start of the conference.
- Potential Trade Idea: The report suggests going long on NEAR into Nearcon 2023 and shorting NEAR at the start of the conference. This is based on rising open interest and funding rate, indicating speculative longs positioned into the start of the conference.
FTX Estate Sales
- Recent Sales: In the past week, the FTX estate has sent over $100 million of tokens to exchanges, presumably for sale. Despite the large amount of SOL being sent to exchanges, the price of SOL has risen, suggesting significant demand to absorb the sell pressure.
- Potential Trade Idea: The report suggests shorting the remaining top FTX estate holdings (FTX, Alameda) on any evidence that the estate is sending to exchanges, especially if liquidity has pulled back or prices have stagnated. This is based on the estate’s history of selling into price rallies.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor Aptos Token Unlocks: The acceleration of Aptos token unlocks could significantly impact the price of APT. Investors should monitor this situation closely and adjust their positions accordingly.
- Consider Near’s Historical Price Action: Near’s historical price action around Nearcon could provide trading opportunities. Investors should consider this pattern when making investment decisions.
- Watch FTX Estate Sales: The FTX estate’s sales could impact the prices of its holdings. Investors should watch for signs of these sales and adjust their positions as necessary.
