Research Summary
The report by Ouroboros Capital examines three upcoming catalysts in the cryptocurrency market: the annual halving of FXS emissions, the launch of Merchant Moe by Trader Joe, and the DOGE-1 satellite launch. The analysis includes potential trade ideas and factors to watch out for each catalyst.
Key Takeaways
FXS Halving
- FXS Emissions Reduction: The report highlights the upcoming annual halving of FXS emissions on December 20, 2023. Currently, FXS gauges emit approximately 6,250 FXS per day, which will be reduced by half, leading to around $10 million less emission annually. Historically, FXS has performed well after halving, with a 2.9x rise in 2021 and a 2.5x rise in 2022.
- Potential Trade Idea: The report suggests going long on FXS into halving, with other potential catalysts being the launch of Frax Chain and Borrow AMM (BAMM).
Trader Joe’s Merchant Moe Launch
- DEX on Mantle: Trader Joe has announced the launch of Merchant Moe, a decentralized exchange (DEX) to be built on Mantle. The report suggests that Merchant Moe is likely to succeed given Mantle’s support and the use of its $1.2 billion treasury to provide liquidity.
- Potential Trade Idea: The report recommends going long on JOE on pullbacks, as JOE is currently benefiting from the AVAX ecosystem strength, which is largely driven by memecoins.
DOGE-1 Satellite Launch
- SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Launch: The DOGE-1 satellite, fully funded by DOGE tokens, is set to launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on January 12, 2024. The satellite has received regulatory approval from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC).
- Potential Trade Idea: The report suggests shorting DOGE on the launch date, as DOGE has risen close to 40% since the start of November 2023, and the move up is largely priced in.
Actionable Insights
- Monitor FXS Performance: Given the historical performance of FXS after halving, it may be beneficial to monitor the performance of FXS leading up to and following the halving date.
- Assess JOE’s Position: With the launch of Merchant Moe and the potential for JOE lockups to reduce JOE supply, it may be worth assessing the position of JOE in the market and its potential for upward price pressure.
- Observe DOGE’s Price Movement: With the upcoming DOGE-1 satellite launch, it may be useful to observe DOGE’s price movement and consider the potential for a price drop following the launch.
