Research Summary
The report discusses the potential of Celestia, a blockchain technology, and its token $TIA. It compares Celestia’s potential to the OHM’s (3,3) narrative that gained popularity in 2021. The report also explores the value of airdrops and the impact they have on the community and token price.
Key Takeaways
Celestia’s Technological Advancement
- Celestia’s Specialization: Celestia specializes in the Data Availability layer of the blockchain stack, making it easier and cheaper for new projects to deploy new rollups and blockchains. This has resulted in significant cost reductions for projects like Manta Network.
The Airdrop Narrative
- Value of Airdrops: Celestia’s airdrops have been significant in creating a strong narrative for the $TIA token. The report suggests that the value of these airdrops can often cover the initial cost basis of $TIA purchases, creating a reflexive cycle that benefits both developers and the community.
Comparisons to OHM’s (3,3) Narrative
- Similarities with OHM: The report draws parallels between Celestia and OHM’s (3,3) narrative, suggesting that the valuation of $TIA can be thought of in terms of value accrual to the DA layer, monetary premium of TIA as “Modular Money”, and the value of all future airdrops.
Impact of Airdrops on Community Engagement
- Community Engagement: Airdrops have been instrumental in engaging the community and communicating the value proposition of the token. The report suggests that generous airdrops can lead to a strong community, which in turn can drive up the token price.
Future Predictions for TIA
- Future of TIA: The report predicts that TIA will be a profitable hold in the bull market but could be painful in the bear market as people unwind once they realize the valuation doesn’t make sense. The 21-day unbond period for staking TIA could exacerbate this reality.
Actionable Insights
- Understanding Celestia’s Technology: Given Celestia’s specialization in the Data Availability layer, it’s crucial to understand how this technology works and its potential impact on the blockchain industry.
- Monitoring Airdrop Strategies: Observing the strategies and impacts of airdrops can provide insights into the potential value and future trajectory of $TIA.
- Comparing with Similar Narratives: Comparing Celestia’s narrative with similar narratives like OHM’s (3,3) can provide a better understanding of its potential and risks.
